Three stories a day for people who trade at street level in Dubai: the rent, the rules, the footfall and the competition, all independently verified.
Because from October 1st, an unchecked supplier can cost you the 5% VAT you claim back. The tax authority can now refuse that refund if a supplier sits anywhere in a fraud chain. So the rule asks you to check the supplier first. You check identity documents at the first order. Then you check again after twelve months. For any supplier billing more than AED 375,000 a year, you also need written confirmation from their bank.
Small purchases are treated differently. Anything under AED 10,000 from a supplier is exempt. But that exemption disappears once you buy more than AED 100,000 from the same supplier in a year. That works out at about AED 8,300 a month. Payment also has to be electronic, and cash needs a written reason kept on file. The rule starts on October 1st, so there are five weeks to put the paperwork in place.
Dubai schools are going back, so the morning commute has returned to term time. Traffic now builds before 6am, earlier than it did all summer. The heaviest stretch runs from 6am to 8am. In Al Twar, Garhoud and Oud Metha, it runs on until 9am. School zones are adding 15 to 30 minutes. Journeys across Dubai are adding 10 to 15 minutes. A second peak returns after 2pm, at pick-up time.
Karama, Bur Dubai, Oud Metha, Garhoud, Al Barsha and Al Quoz are among the areas named. So deliveries booked for 7am now land inside that window. Staff travelling in from Sharjah need an extra hour. Rotas set over the quiet summer were built against different traffic. Taxi driver Mushtaq told Khaleej Times: During school hours, most roads will have traffic. Avoiding one road may not make much difference.
Still, the first three days are expected to be the hardest to predict.
Fuel is likely to cost more because crude oil prices kept climbing through August. Brent crude averaged about $87.70 a barrel this month. In July it averaged $83.46. On Tuesday morning it traded at $91.18. At the pump, Super 98 currently costs AED 3.60 a litre. Special 95 costs AED 3.49, and E-Plus costs AED 3.41. All three rose by about 20 fils a litre at the start of August.
Fuel feeds into more than the delivery van. Staff transport allowances move with it. So do supplier delivery charges, usually a month or two later. Naeem Aslam of Zaye Capital Markets points to why prices stay unsettled: Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still heavily disrupted, and that keeps the market highly sensitive to any development that threatens Iranian exports.
September's prices are set at the end of August.